Reflektion kring vad prognosen från Migrationsverket betyder

 

Den fjärde februari presenterade Migrationsverket sin prognos för hur många asylsökande som förväntas komma till Sverige under 2016. När generaldirektören uttrycker ”Det går knappast att tala om en prognos längre”, så finns det all anledning att fundera igenom vilken kapacitet och beredskap som finns hos svenska myndigheter att hantera den situation som mot sommaren och höst kan bli svår att överblicka och få kontroll över.

Migrationsverkets rapport visar med tydlighet att det finns en överhängande risk för att kommuner och statliga myndigheter under året kommer att uppleva en betydande överbelastning. När vetskapen om en kommande överbelastning nu finns, är det också rimligt att skyndsamt säkerställa att nödvändiga åtgärder genomförs så att de berörda aktörerna står väl rustade inför den kommande utmaningen.

Berättelserna från höstens hantering av den omfattande mängden asylsökande illustrerar att många organisationer har goda möjligheter att bli bättre. Framförallt finns stora möjligheter att A) bli bättre på att internt organisera sig för att hantera nödvändiga insatser och B) säkerställa en fungerande och effektiv informationshantering. Allt löser sig inte med dessa två punkter, men om inte punkterna förbättras så kommer överbelastningen bli mycket kännbar. För vilka medarbetare orkar med en likadan eller värre period igen?

Mot denna bakgrund finns alltså ett akut behov av ett kunskapslyft kring ledning och samordning. Kanske är det så att MSB, SKL och Universitet/Högskolor tillsammans borde skapa ett intensivprogram där de organisationer som vill förbättra sina möjligheter att bemöta den förväntade överbelastningen kan få stöd och coaching i ledning och organisering av verksamhet under press.

Jag tror att många kommuner och myndigheter skulle vara intresserade av ett sådant program. Vad tror du?

Highlights from the CSCW2012 Conference

Directly from the CSCW2012 conference in Bellevue (WA) in United States, here is my list of the most interesting pieces of work related to my own research field. A majority of the papers are related to social media in crisis response, one on the use of online forums for coordination in crises and lastly an impressive study on mobile live video production. All these papers will soon be available via www.acm.org/portal

“Beacons of Hope” in Decentralized Coordination: Learning from On-the-Ground Medical Twitterers During the 2010 Haiti Earthquake  

Aleksandra Sarcevic (Drexel University)
Leysia Palen (University of Colorado, Boulder)
Joanne White (University of Colorado, Boulder)
Kate Starbird (University of Colorado, Boulder)
Mossaab Bagdouri (University of Colorado, Boulder)
Kenneth Anderson (University of Colorado, Boulder)

Abstract: We examine the public, social media communications of 110 emergency medical response teams and organizations in the immediate aftermath of the January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake. We found the teams through an inductive analysis of Twitter communications acquired over the three-week emergency period from 89,114 Twitterers. We then analyzed the teams’ Twitter streams, as well as all digital media they generated and pointed to in their streams—blog posts, photographs, videos, status updates and field reports—to understand the medical coordination challenges they faced from pre-deployment readiness to onthe-ground action. Here we identify opportunities for improving coordination in a decentralized and distributed environment where staffing, disease trajectories, and other circumstances rapidly change. We extrapolate from these findings to theorize about how “beaconing” behavior is a sign of latent potential for coordination upon which mechanisms of coordination can capitalize.

Relief Work after the 2010 Haiti Earthquake: Leadership in an Online Resource Coordination Network
Sean P. Goggins (Drexel University)
 Christopher Mascaro (Drexel University)
Stephanie Mascaro (Atlas Research)

Abstract: The US Navy directed its vast resources at the relief effort following the Haiti Earthquake on January 12, 2010. To coordinate with non-governmental-organizations (NGOs) participating in the relief effort, the US Navy used an online discussion forum. What follows is an examination of the emergence, rise, on-the-ground utility and decline of this “walled-garden” style discussion forum. Our findings show that most site activity is broadcast oriented and does not result in discussion, but in the small percentage of cases where discussion emerges, participants are focused on the exchange of medical, Global Information Systems (GIS) and equipment on the ground oriented information. We show how activity on the discussion forum changes over time, and corresponds with events on the ground in Haiti. Four archetypical users are profiled to demonstrate how invisible brokerage style leadership, identified through grounded theory analysis of posts, can be made visible through network analysis of interaction traces. Our findings have implications for the use of forum style, “walled garden” technology for coordination and information sharing in future crises.

(How) Will the Revolution be Retweeted?: Information Diffusion and the 2011 Egyptian Uprising 
Kate Starbird (University of Colorado, Boulder)
Leysia Palen (University of Colorado, Boulder)

Abstract: This paper examines microblogging information diffusion activity during the 2011 Egyptian political uprisings. Specifically, we examine the use of the retweet mechanism on Twitter, using empirical evidence of information propagation to reveal aspects of work that the crowd conducts. Analysis of the widespread contagion of a popular meme reveals interaction between those who were “on the ground” in Cairo and those who were not. However, differences between information that appeals to the larger crowd and those who were doing on-the-ground work reveal important interplay between the two realms. Through both qualitative and statistical description, we show how the crowd expresses solidarity and does the work of information processing through recommendation and filtering. We discuss how these aspects of work mutually sustain crowd interaction in a politically sensitive context. In addition, we show how features of this retweetrecommendation behavior could be used in combination with other indicators to identify information that is new and likely coming from the ground.

Amateur Vision and Recreational Orientation: Creating Live Video Together 
Arvid Engström (MobileLife at Interactive Institute)
Mark Perry (Brunel University & MobileLife at Interactive Institute)
Oskar Juhlin (MobileLife at Interactive Institute)

Abstract: We explore the use of a live video broadcast system by a group of amateur camera operators to film an event on networked cameraphones. Using an interaction analysis of physical interactions and orientations to the work of others, we examine their choice of camera angles and positions in their filming as they attempt to provide interesting visual content and a coherent narrative. Findings illustrate how users adapt their behaviour as co-ordination problems occur by drawing from a set of everyday visual practices (‘amateur vision’). They also show how the specifically temporal aspect of live video requires extended attention on its production, and that this is at odds with the ‘recreational orientation’ of amateur film crews who simultaneously participate in events for their own enjoyment and film them on behalf of other viewers. Implications for the design of collaborative live broadcast media are made, focusing on approaches to interaction design that augment users’ visual practices and allow users to look on behalf of others while experiencing places and events themselves.

Interesting study by Swedish researchers: Improved Response to Disasters and Outbreaks by Tracking Population Movements with Mobile Phone Network Data

Today on the Swedish national radio, this paper on “Improved Response to Disasters and Outbreaks by Tracking Population Movements with Mobile Phone Network Data” was one of the top headlines in the news. The paper targets an important topic and also shows how innovative use of digital footprints in the mobile phone networks could be used in disaster relief.

A popular version of the main ideas is presented in Fast Company.

The paper is written by:
Linus Bengtsson Xin Lu, Anna Thorson, Johan von Schreeb at the department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden, and Richard Garfield at Schools of Nursing and Public Health, Columbia University, United States of America.

Abstract:
Background: Population movements following disasters can cause important increases in morbidity and mortality. Without knowledge of the locations of affected people, relief assistance is compromised. No rapid and accurate method exists to track population movements after disasters. We used position data of subscriber identity module (SIM) cards from the largest mobile phone company in Haiti (Digicel) to estimate the magnitude and trends of population movements following the Haiti 2010 earthquake and cholera outbreak.

Methods and Findings: Geographic positions of SIM cards were determined by the location of the mobile phone tower through which each SIM card connects when calling. We followed daily positions of SIM cards 42 days before the earthquake and 158 days after. To exclude inactivated SIM cards, we included only the 1.9 million SIM cards that made at least one call both pre-earthquake and during the last month of study. In Port-au-Prince there were 3.2 persons per included SIM card. We used this ratio to extrapolate from the number of moving SIM cards to the number of moving persons. Cholera outbreak analyses covered 8 days and tracked 138,560 SIM cards. An estimated 630,000 persons (197,484 Digicel SIM cards), present in Port-au-Prince on the day of the earthquake, had left 19 days post-earthquake. Estimated net outflow of people (outflow minus inflow) corresponded to 20% of the Port-au-Prince pre-earthquake population. Geographic distribution of population movements from Port-au-Prince corresponded well with results from a large retrospective, population-based UN survey. To demonstrate feasibility of rapid estimates and to identify areas at potentially increased risk of outbreaks, we produced reports on SIM card movements from a cholera outbreak area at its immediate onset and within 12 hours of receiving data.

Conclusions: Results suggest that estimates of population movements during disasters and outbreaks can be delivered rapidly and with potentially high validity in areas with high mobile phone use.

Citation: Bengtsson L, Lu X, Thorson A, Garfield R, von Schreeb J (2011) Improved Response to Disasters and Outbreaks by Tracking Population Movements with Mobile Phone Network Data: A Post-Earthquake Geospatial Study in Haiti. PLoS Med 8(8): e1001083. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001083

“clearly Twitter is becoming a key vehicle for emergency communications”

It is far from a complete surprise for us, but social media seems to become more and more important in emergency and crisis response. During the last few years, we have heard many reports of the potential of social media in times of emergencies, crises and disasters. Too often, these stories have focused only on the potential use and interesting yet minor examples of real use. But since some time, we now see a massive use of social media where the benefits not only are identified but are concrete and real.

During hurricane Irene, not only top-level government agencies used social media to stay informed, but also local governments. It is refreshing to see how local and regional agencies now seems to have overcome their self-generated administrative and bureaucratic hurdles to use social media.

Alexander Howard writes on CBSnews.com how “Hurricane Irene highlights importance of real-time leadership and social data”. He describes how Mayor Vince Gray (@MayorVinceGray) in Washington just recently have come to the conclusion that social media is fundamental i emergency and crisis response. I quote “Mayor Gray’s office, while a relative latecomer to social media, appears to be convinced of its use after the past weekend: “clearly Twitter is becoming a key vehicle for emergency communications,” he tweeted last night.”

We have not seen the same enthusiasm yet in Swedish local, regional and national agencies, but it is reasonable to expect that similar opinions will emerge even here in Sweden. What is really fascinating is how the US department of Homeland Security urges people to use social media during extreme events in order to stay in contact.

According to Alexander Howard, FEMA administrators such as Craig Fugate (@CraigAtFEMA) use social media for situational awareness. Craig Fugate explains that “Social media’s biggest power, that I see, is to empower the public as a resource.”

We have still some work to do in Sweden before our national, regional and local agencies will use social media for situational awareness. But important steps are on its way and it is not unlikley that we will see a dramatic shift in attitude to use social media for improved situation awareness during the next few years. It is reasonable to believe that we will se a rapid increase of competence development activities focusing on social media for crisis response. Many Swedish organizations have a long way to run to catch up with the fast-paced social media landscape.

Kriskommunikationen var ett problem under SAMÖ/KKÖ

I Svenska Dagbladet berättar Niclas Karlsson, Övningsledare vid Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap, MSB kring likheter mellan händelseutvecklingen i de japanska kärnkraftsverken och det övningsscenario som användes under inledningsskedet av SAMÖ/KKÖ i februrari 2010.

Från SVD: “–En del av händelseutvecklingen i övningen är ganska lik det som händer i Japan med ett strömbortfall som gjorde att det blev ett radioaktivt utsläpp, säger Niclas Karlsson, övningsledare vid Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap, MSB.”

Enligt samma artikel visar de obeservationer som Niclas Karlsson gjort under övningen att det finns problem med kriskommunikationen.

Från SVD: “–Det jag själv har upptäckt är också en likhet med det som händer nu i Japan och det är svårigheten i kriskommunikation när något sådant här inträffar, säger Niclas Karlsson.”

Att Niclas Karlsson nämner detta problem kommer säkert leda till kritik mot honom. Sådan kritik skall då ses som en indikator på att problem med kriskommunikationen är ett mycket känsligt ämne för svenska myndigheter. Men observationen ligger väl i linje med vad som andra observatörer (praktiker och forskare) under övningen sett och som då gäller både kriskommunikation mellan myndighetsaktörer samt kriskommunikation till allmänheten.

Den kommande utvärderingen av SAMÖ/KKÖ är viktig då den om den tillåts att vara detaljerad och ärlig kan ge goda argument för ett behov av kapacitets och kompetenshöjning av myndigheternas krishanteringsförmåga. En förmåga som idag har brister som är större och mer allvarliga än vad allmänheten troligtvis kan acceptera.

"Mobil medborgardriventjänst överbryggar rapporteringsglapp."

Med ovan ganska grova direktöversättning av rubriken “Mobile, Citizen-Driven Service Bridges Reporting Gap in Aid Industry” vill jag lyfta fram en intressant artikel kring hur ganska enkla med effektivt designade lösningar ger värdefull rapportering kring bristande myndighetsservice.

Återigen när det kommer till olika former av lösningar för att ge allmänheten nya verktyg för rapportering om vad som pågår i lokalsamhället, så är det Ushahidi-teamet som kontinuerligt levererar spännande idéer.

“The mobile-powered initiative allows ordinary citizens in Kenya to report on missing or inadequate services in health care, tax offices, education, government, and other agencies.”

Läs mer i artikel på www.fastcompany.com

KEMKONFERENS 16-17 mars

Nu är det återigen dags för ännu ett spännande arrangemang hos Helsingborgs Brandförsvar. KEM2011 går av staplen den 16-17 mars och arrangeras av Helsingborgs Brandförsvar i samarbete med Informationsbolaget, MSB, Region Skåne.

“Huvudämnen på årets konferens är Inträffade händelser, Ny syn på interaktion mellan kemisk industri och samhället, Tryckkondenserad gas, Nyheter regelverken och Beslutsstöd vid stora olyckor.” Läs mer på: www.kem2011.se

Det är mycket imponerande att Helsingborgs Brandförsvar kontinuerligt engagerar sig i aktiviteter som syftar till kunskapsspridning, kunskapsutveckling och debatt. Bra jobbat helt enkelt.